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At first, the former US president gave the impression to adopt a strong position regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After making threats of "serious repercussions" in August should Russia's president persisted blocking ceasefire talks, Trump eventually imposed major sanctions on the Russian primary petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This action substantially impacted Putin's ability to finance his military invasion in the region.

Yet, via his latest 28-point peace proposal for the conflict, that was developed by both nations' officials lacking Ukraine's or EU input, the former president has clearly gone back to his pro-Putin position.

Favoring Military Action

Trump's proposal would essentially benefit the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while putting the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite bold declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", large portions of the initiative actually compromise that same independence. Seen as a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his real-estate experience, the former president persists to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a simple border issue, implying ceding Russia a part of Ukrainian soil will appease the leader. However, Putin's war is not only about occupying a charred area of economically weakened land in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear desire to eliminate it so it ceases to acts as an attractive model for the Russian citizens of the responsible government that his deepening autocracy denies them.

Land Surrenders

While freezing in place the presently divided Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would compel the nation to abandon the entire Donetsk region. In addition to favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its forces have been unsuccessful to capture in exceeding a lengthy period of warfare, this giveaway would leave Ukraine's military defenses critically undermined.

This region is the site of Ukraine's well-known "fortress belt", the entrenched military defenses that represent a essential obstacle to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these fortifications, providing Russian forces a unobstructed path to Kyiv should he subsequently choose to resume the conflict.

Military Limitations

Furthermore, in a action that would facilitate renewed fighting simpler for Russia, the plan would force Ukraine to cut the scale of its military from their current 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a maximum of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's plan places no equivalent restrictions on Russian forces.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to characterize the nation's democratically elected government as extremists, the proposal declares: "Every radical doctrine and activities must be condemned and banned." Seemingly to underscore this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold political contests in this period" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, Trump imposes no requirement that the Russian leader jeopardize his authoritarian rule by conducting elections in Russia.

Protection Assurances

Certainly, the initiative makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter bordering nations" and to "incorporate in law its stance of peaceful relations towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". Yet given that Putin has breached comparable treaties in the past – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to honor the nation's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its former Soviet atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a handback of captured territory in the region to the government – why should the international community believe Putin on this occasion?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on external security guarantees. Although the plan warns of a "decisive coordinated armed reaction" should Russia renew its military campaign, and provides that "The nation will receive dependable security guarantees", the specifics vary from unclear to concerning. The initiative would not only deny Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent alliance nations from stationing forces on Ukraine's soil, effectively precluding the security presence, likely headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Russia from restoring his diminished military, re-equipping, and attacking again.

World Concern

A separate side agreement apparently would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any subsequent "major, intentional, and continuous aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an attack threatening the tranquility of the allied countries." That suggests a military response. But different from a strong Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable defense against future invasion – the credibility of the side agreement would rely on the dedication of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to react through arms to Putin's attacks, an action they have {not