Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.

Victor Bailey
Victor Bailey

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